Monday, October 29, 2018

Numerical effects of EB1C on EB2 backlog


Lets look at calculation and try to understand the numerical effects of EB1C on EB2 backlog. 


Source_1
 DHS Year book (therein Table 7) 
Link_1
Data_Point_1
 2017 All Countries (EB1) Priority Workers (including Spouse+Children)=41,060 


Source_2
 State Department Annual Report 
Link_2
Data_Point_2
2017 INDIA (all EB1) Priority Workers (including Spouse+Children)=13,082 

Now Lets look at EB1 A+B+C Numbers from Source_1: 

EB1A
EB1B
EB1C 


NEWARR
AOS
NEWARR
AOS
NEWARR
AOS
Total 
Primary
903
4915
14
2557
60
8494
16943 
Spouse
691
3761
11
1956
46
6499
12964 
Children
594
3235
9
1683
39
5591
11153 
total_eb1_world
41060 

total_eb1c_world
20730 


Ratio => total_eb1c_world / total_eb1_world = 0.50 

Applying the SAME ratio to 2017 EB1 Numbers for INDIA 
i.e.=> EB1C_INDIA / EB1_INDIA = 0.505 

EB1C_INDIA = 0.50 * EB1_INDIA 
EB1C_INDIA = 0.50 * 13,082 (Data_Point_2) = 6605 


Do Similar calculation using all the year books. 
9 years of aggregated numbers consumed by EB1C = 70,000 green cards. 

------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

Now looking at PERM Labor filed by INDIA 
(Source OFLC PERM statistics year wise - google ) 

FY2009 11387 (remaining after last bulletin) 
FY2010 28930 
FY2011 31273 
FY2012 30278 
FY2013 20930 
FY2014 35092 
FY2015 45,670 


Based on above, In the absence of EB1C India, EB2 INDIA dates would have easily moved to 2012 as of end of 2018 and would have continuously move (albeit slowly due to increasingly number of PERM labor every year). 


And Since Every passing year PERM numbers have increased and will continue to increase , So argument " getting rid of EB1C is not helpful since there is tooooo much of backlog " is flawed just because, it doesn't take into account time already SPENT in the backlog by people with priority dates from past 9 years, how can we count all backlog in one bucket since 2009 till 2018. 

Backlog can never clear in one shot, it’s a moving train which has been halted by EB1C . 

There are multiple flaws in US Immigration system. EB1C is one of them. 

No other route gives Green card so easily in BULK to under-deserved Employees. 

In the absence of EB1C , Priority dates would move and would have moved and can maintain more or less at an average of 6 years of wait for people with priority date up to 2012 and 10 years for 2013-2017. 

But Due to Abuse of EB1C, EB2/3 dates will NEVER EVER MOVE, regardless. 
- with or without EVC, 
- with or without WITCH EB2/3, 
- with or without F2 OPT / CPT EAD


Now based on 2804+2804 for EB2+EB3 INDIA minimum annual allocation, 
Clearing backlog from 2009 will take 2 years i.e. by 2020 
Clearing backlog from 2010 will take another 6 years i.e. by 2026 
Clearing backlog from 2011 will take another 6 years i.e. by 2032 
Clearing backlog from 2012 will take another 6 years i.e. by 2038 
Clearing backlog from 2013 will take another 4 years i.e. by 2042 

and so on. 

---------------------------- 

while EB3 has plenty of opportunities to be EB2 and it’s a natural progression just by virtue of working hard. 

No way in the heaven EB2/EB3 can naturally & honestly become EB1C, unless he uproots & moves internationally.


8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Teri ma ki chut bhosdi ke.

Best regards,
Eb1c Nebraska Service Centre

Anonymous said...

You are a rockstar, Sir/Madam!! High respects to you!!! This data is all out there, but I appreciate your time and energy in nicely summarizing it. Someday your blog is going to act as a whistleblower and bring this immense fraud out in the open. My forecast is the day Democrats are back in office. Trump and Republicans are so focused on the front door of H-1B that they dont realize that their backdoor of EB1C India is wide open and idiots, fraudsters and all kinds of bad people are just walking in directly.

I would request you to please NEVER EVER take this great blog down and keep it up so that people and real americans from USCIS (if there are any left there) can see what is really going on.

The earlier comment in Hindi, merely reinforces the low level that EB1-C "geniuses" really are!! It merely shows what best they can think of!! (hardly surprising! :) :) )

The thing is even in this country there have been many frauds that can go on for years, but ALWAYS, ALWAYS one day they come out, like Sub-prime lending, like Enron. And when that happens, even if EB1-Cs may or may not get necessarily deported, they will be ROYALLY HUMILIATED! Their real "genius" level will be open to the world!

That will bring back peace. Amen.


Anonymous said...

It is important to qualify data as data alone is not a necessary and sufficient to come out with conclusions.
When you say EB1C is fraudulent. It is your opinion against someone else. Do you have proven cases of large scale fraud ? If yes, why are you not initiating action..may be a lawsuit will help as many EB2/EB3 folks are stuck due to EB1C. Which companies are applying for EB1C in a big way ? Are these American Companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google ? What about Outsourcing companies like Infosys, TCS, Wipro ? If there is a prima facie evidence of fraud, why is no one filing a lawsuit ?

Anonymous said...

TO Anonymous @November 1, 2018 at 11:12 AM


When whole society is flawed , you can not expect any change.

Many parties are getting benefitted, those who are suffering or being deprived, are kept in dark or don't have any voice.

For starters:

US has become destination of escape from INDIA its a great bargain for FRESHERS who can land in a high paying job in US much easier than INDIA.

Experienced People working for all kinds of companies Fortune 50-500 and WITCH or NON-WITCH or ITSERVE can not speak for what ever reason.


Power lies in the hands of corrupt INDIANS who after getting Green Card open a (ITSERVE affiliate) shop for slavery and their slavery Hat transfers to more slave(s). Or Lies in the hands of WITCH Managements / Bigwigs, who are exploiting system.

American CEOs give no shit, and American School Education System stinks (no stress on Math). College Fees are 100,000x of that in INDIA, which means you can train 100,000 workers in INDIA for the price of 1 in USA.

In the Nutshell Improvement is needed at many fronts, EB1C is one of them.

Do not forget Most Part US Universities is business of making Money for University and Getting Visa for the Indian students. Whom you will blame more?

Anonymous said...

This is a great summary.. I totally agree with this....

Personally, I feel pained that this is happening. Take my case (and I know i am not alone here), I have been in the US for 15 years now. Came to do Bschool in one of the top Ivy leage schools here. Post which I worked at top management consulting firm and two of the top 3 Fortune 5 tech companies. (I am not saying this to gloat about myself.. just want to give context) leading a global organization with more than 200 people reporting into my org. Last 3-4 years I have been paying taxes around $350K to uncle sam. I am in EB2 and my PD is May 1 2009. I still do not have my GC and it pains to read your article in this context. I personally know of 3 folks in the same category.. while good people for sure but not deserving to be in the category of Genius or let us say defnly more deserving than me for immigration into US

The numbers you show are staggering and it is quite right in the open. Why the authorities that are there cant fix this a bit to ensure folks in this country for the longest time and deserving are given priority?

Shalmei said...

It’s really good to read this awesome article! there's a lot of fraud all over the world, it was nice to see that there are some people like you, that would allow us to know about such things. May I ask if is it okay for you to visit https://www.bonafidevisa.com, I want to hear from you!

Intern said...

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Numerical effects of EB1C on EB2 backlog

Lets look at calculation and try to understand the numerical effects of EB1C on EB2 backlog.  Source_1   DHS Year book ...